Peekaboo Inflation: Now You See It, Now You Don’t.

Signs of Inflation Rapidly Vanish. For the 12 months ended September, 2018, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported to be increasing at an annual rate of 2.3% (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).  The CPI is the “official” measure of how much more it costs an individual each year to maintain a consistent standard of living. Unfortunately, the CPI […]

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How to Survive, Prosper, and Thrive in The Coming Bear Market (Part 1).

How to Survive, Prosper, and Thrive in The Coming Bear Market (Part 1). Imagine taking the same route home every day for a decade, while listening to your favorite music.  Suddenly, you see signs everywhere telling you you’re going in the wrong direction.  Nah, can’t be.  Must be a mistake.  It’s not.  A cop’s lights […]

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Asset Bubbles Start Popping as Interest Rates Surge.

Asset Bubbles Start Popping as Interest Rates Surge. It was “too good to be true” for “too long to be true”.  Nearly 38 years of falling interest rates (or RISING BOND PRICES) and a 9-year Bull Market in Equities appear to be beating a hasty retreat.  Lots of signs were there: this unprecedented period of […]

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Inflation: Suddenly, The Signs Are Everywhere!

Inflation: Suddenly, The Signs Are Everywhere! For what has seemed an eternity, finding tangible signs of inflation was much harder than finding the elusive “Waldo”.  Our recent piece entitled “Inflection Point (Part 5)    (https://markonomics101.com/2018/09/03/inflection-point-part-5-interest-rates-inflation-and-inflection/) looked at the amazing contradictions in the available data and raised as many questions, as answers. Suddenly, market signs of […]

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The Interest Rate Bomb: Is The Fuse Now Lit?

The Interest Rate Bomb: Is The Fuse Now Lit? Recently, we noted the critical role that higher inflation and interest rates would play in The Inflection Process.  Furthermore, the levels of interest rates seemed so low as to make very little logical sense (https://markonomics101.com/2018/09/03/inflection-point-part-5-interest-rates-inflation-and-inflection/.)  Not only does “reported” inflation (currently 2.9% annually) seem to vastly […]

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Inflection Point (Part 6): What Precious Metals?

Inflection Point (Part 6): What Precious Metals? So far, the Inflection Point Series appears to be largely unfolding along the lines that we laid out beginning in Part 1, which argued that the long run equity valuation cycle had more than run its course.  The key factors which had propelled the Stock Markets to dizzying […]

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Interest Rates Continue to Edge Higher.

Interest Rates Continue to Edge Higher. Interest rates peaked in early 1980 at 20% on the Federal Funds Rate, the key short-term borrowing rate set by the Federal Reserve.  Known as the Prime Rate years ago, it reflects very short maturities.  Longer term rates, such as Five, Ten, or Thirty Year Maturities are set in […]

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Interest Rates Poised To Turn Higher?

Interest Rates Poised To Turn Higher? Recently, we described the unusual relationship between inflation, GDP, and interest rates in “Inflection Point (Part 5): Interest Rates, Inflation, and Inflection” (https://markonomics101.com/2018/09/03/inflection-point-part-5-interest-rates-inflation-and-inflection/).  It is vital that investors understand the accuracy and quality of “official” numbers regarding economic performance, especially in making investment decisions. The Bureau of Labor Statistics […]

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Inflection Point (Part 5): Interest Rates, Inflation, and Inflection.

Inflection Point (Part 5): Interest Rates, Inflation, and Inflection. “Inflation” is the annual rate of price increase for a specific basket of goods or services a consumer buys and is directly tied to changes in “value” of the currency being used in the exchange of those goods and services.  The government’s official gauge of inflation […]

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