Is Another Financial System Crisis Dead Ahead?

Has The Fed Miscalculated, AGAIN?? The recent about-face in US Treasury rates is nothing short of stunning.  Or is it? At the end of 2015, Janet Yellen’s Federal Reserve first began the process of unwinding the prior years of stimulus.   The key “Federal Funds” rate target was hiked a full five times.  Even so, […]

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Interest Rates in Sudden, Full Reverse

Federal Reserve Chairman Signals Change in Policy Jerome Powell has only been on the job as the new Federal Reserve Chairman since February, but has already created substantial controversy.  Powell’s Fed has raised the “Federal Funds” rate 3 times in 6 months.  Until recently, the Fed was signalling another rate hike in December and up […]

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Crashing Crude Oil Prices: A Sign of Oncoming Recession?

Crude Oil in Record Setting Plunge. Just two weeks ago, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTIC) fetched $75, a new multi-year high.  Today, that same barrel trades at just above $55, a loss of 27%.   This price collapse in Oil was the largest in that short of a time period in […]

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Peekaboo Inflation: Now You See It, Now You Don’t.

Signs of Inflation Rapidly Vanish. For the 12 months ended September, 2018, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported to be increasing at an annual rate of 2.3% (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).  The CPI is the “official” measure of how much more it costs an individual each year to maintain a consistent standard of living. Unfortunately, the CPI […]

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Are Precious Metals Finally Bottoming?

Are Precious Metals Finally Bottoming? Early this year, Gold and Silver looked like they were positioned in an outrageously bullish set up (https://markonomics101.com/2018/07/15/inflection-point-part-2-financial-assets-give-way-to-hard-assets/), but until about 3 weeks ago, they had instead, taken a huge nose dive to near multi-year lows. Recently, with the economic landscape having changed so much, the Precious Metals Sector is showing […]

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How to Survive, Prosper, and Thrive in The Coming Bear Market (Part 1).

How to Survive, Prosper, and Thrive in The Coming Bear Market (Part 1). Imagine taking the same route home every day for a decade, while listening to your favorite music.  Suddenly, you see signs everywhere telling you you’re going in the wrong direction.  Nah, can’t be.  Must be a mistake.  It’s not.  A cop’s lights […]

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Asset Bubbles Start Popping as Interest Rates Surge.

Asset Bubbles Start Popping as Interest Rates Surge. It was “too good to be true” for “too long to be true”.  Nearly 38 years of falling interest rates (or RISING BOND PRICES) and a 9-year Bull Market in Equities appear to be beating a hasty retreat.  Lots of signs were there: this unprecedented period of […]

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Is The Stock Market Schizophrenic or Bi-Polar?

Is The Stock Market Schizophrenic or Bi-Polar? Yesterday, in a piece called “Stock Market Schizophrenia”  (https://markonomics101.com/2018/10/01/stock-market-schizophrenia-markonomics101/), we looked at how the markets are becoming very fractured, (between sectors). Interest rate sensitive sectors such as REAL ESTATE, Broker-Dealers, and Banks were all at, or near, LOWS.  At the same time, the Technology and Health Care sectors were […]

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Inflation: Suddenly, The Signs Are Everywhere!

Inflation: Suddenly, The Signs Are Everywhere! For what has seemed an eternity, finding tangible signs of inflation was much harder than finding the elusive “Waldo”.  Our recent piece entitled “Inflection Point (Part 5)    (https://markonomics101.com/2018/09/03/inflection-point-part-5-interest-rates-inflation-and-inflection/) looked at the amazing contradictions in the available data and raised as many questions, as answers. Suddenly, market signs of […]

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The Interest Rate Bomb: Is The Fuse Now Lit?

The Interest Rate Bomb: Is The Fuse Now Lit? Recently, we noted the critical role that higher inflation and interest rates would play in The Inflection Process.  Furthermore, the levels of interest rates seemed so low as to make very little logical sense (https://markonomics101.com/2018/09/03/inflection-point-part-5-interest-rates-inflation-and-inflection/.)  Not only does “reported” inflation (currently 2.9% annually) seem to vastly […]

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