Retail: The Best of Times or Worst of Times? (Chart of The Day 14)

The BEST Christmas in 6 Years or The WORST December in 10? Last week, the Census Bureau released Retail Sales data for the month of December.  The headline number was a stunning FALL of 1.2%. (The Chart on the Left is Seasonally adjusted month over month retail sales.) Following this news, investment banks  tripped over […]

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Stock Markets Poised For Waterfall Decline?

Stock Indexes Nearing Major Support The Major Stock Indexes are, once again, approaching their 2018 lows and key support.  The markets have successfully bounced off these levels 8 separate times.  A ninth bounce of substance is looking increasing improbable. Economic and market conditions are rapidly deteriorating.  The plunge in Crude Oil prices and Treasury Rates […]

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Dow Jones Industrials Led Lower By the “Dive Five”.

The Dow Jones Is Price Weighted, Giving Certain Components Disproportionate Influence. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) is the oldest and most prestigious stock index.  It’s methodology of calculation is also one of the strangest.  While nearly all indexes are market capitalization weighted, the Dow is “Price” weighted. Price weighting means that a $30 component […]

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World Stock Exchanges and Indexes Overrun by BEARS.

US Stock Markets Valuations Exceed 40% of World Total. According to website Seeking Alpha, the valuation of the United States stock markets exceeds 40% of the entire world (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4202768-u-s-percent-world-stock-market-cap-tops-40-percent).  They compared that to the market capitalizations as they stood on the recent election day in 2018. Not surprisingly, the United States share of world equity […]

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Stock Markets Bracing For Recession?

Bull Vs. Bear Debate Continues. As the major stock market indexes plunged during most of October, fear began to grip Wall Street.  On October 29th, the intraday trading range for the stodgy Dow Jones Industrial Average was nearly 1000 points.  The lows lasted a fraction of a second, however. Within the next 24 hours, the […]

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Peekaboo Inflation: Now You See It, Now You Don’t.

Signs of Inflation Rapidly Vanish. For the 12 months ended September, 2018, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported to be increasing at an annual rate of 2.3% (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).  The CPI is the “official” measure of how much more it costs an individual each year to maintain a consistent standard of living. Unfortunately, the CPI […]

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Stock Markets Bounce Hard Above the “Waterfall Zone”.

High Intraday Volatility Makes for Treacherous Trading. The last two weeks of stock market trading have made for great “theatre” but not much else.  A terrific spectator event was the 1000 point intraday trading range in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) on Monday, October 29th, 2018.  Eerily, exactly 91 years earlier, the Dow was […]

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Tipping Point (Part 5): For Whom The Bear Market Roars?

Tipping Point (Part 5): For Whom The Bear Market Roars? “Times, they are a changing.” (Dylan) With the exception of Precious Metals, which we covered yesterday (https://markonomics101.com/2018/09/16/inflection-point-part-6-what-precious-metals/), the “Inflection Points” are essentially at their completion.  To be more precise, there actually is no such thing as an “Inflection Point”.  It’s more of a process that […]

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Tipping Point (Part 2): The Four Horsemen Of The Nasdaq Collapse

Tipping Point (Part 2): The Four Horsemen Of The Nasdaq Collapse. Trending markets are typically characterized by “Uniformity”, or the tendency for gains or losses to be spread fairly evenly across a broad number of the market’s components.  At an Inflection Point, a higher proportion of issues begin to participate with the new Emerging Trend […]

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