Global Bond Yields COLLAPSE!

Stocks And Bonds Diverge   It wasn’t that long ago the markets anticipated a substantial economic slowdown.  The 20% or so plunge in equities was coupled with a sizable drop in Treasury Bond Yields. Something odd is going on.  Most key equity indexes are approaching all-time highs.  Bonds yields, on the other hand, are breaking […]

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Are We Heading Straight into Global Deflation?

Commodities, Led By Oil, Make New Lows Crude Oil is an input into producing virtually everything, including itself.  It takes oil to transport, refine, drill or pump oil.  Energy is a large portion of the cost of just about everything. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil closed at $46.60 yesterday, a 40% drop since October.  The […]

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Will the Stock Market Get a “Santa Claus Rally” or “Season’s Beatings”?

Is Santa Claus Coming To Town? Also known as the “December Effect”, the Santa Claus rally refers to the tendency of the Stock Markets to rally during the winter holidays.  Yale Hirsch first coined the term in 1967 in the “Stock Trader’s Almanac”.  (https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/).     The evidence, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal, […]

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Interest Rates in Sudden, Full Reverse

Federal Reserve Chairman Signals Change in Policy Jerome Powell has only been on the job as the new Federal Reserve Chairman since February, but has already created substantial controversy.  Powell’s Fed has raised the “Federal Funds” rate 3 times in 6 months.  Until recently, the Fed was signalling another rate hike in December and up […]

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Peekaboo Inflation: Now You See It, Now You Don’t.

Signs of Inflation Rapidly Vanish. For the 12 months ended September, 2018, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported to be increasing at an annual rate of 2.3% (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).  The CPI is the “official” measure of how much more it costs an individual each year to maintain a consistent standard of living. Unfortunately, the CPI […]

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Is The Stock Market Schizophrenic or Bi-Polar?

Is The Stock Market Schizophrenic or Bi-Polar? Yesterday, in a piece called “Stock Market Schizophrenia”  (https://markonomics101.com/2018/10/01/stock-market-schizophrenia-markonomics101/), we looked at how the markets are becoming very fractured, (between sectors). Interest rate sensitive sectors such as REAL ESTATE, Broker-Dealers, and Banks were all at, or near, LOWS.  At the same time, the Technology and Health Care sectors were […]

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The Interest Rate Bomb: Is The Fuse Now Lit?

The Interest Rate Bomb: Is The Fuse Now Lit? Recently, we noted the critical role that higher inflation and interest rates would play in The Inflection Process.  Furthermore, the levels of interest rates seemed so low as to make very little logical sense (https://markonomics101.com/2018/09/03/inflection-point-part-5-interest-rates-inflation-and-inflection/.)  Not only does “reported” inflation (currently 2.9% annually) seem to vastly […]

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Tipping Point (Part 4): Major World Equity Market Poised For Decline.

Tipping Point (Part 4): Major World Equity Markets Poised For Decline The most recent estimates for the total market value of US stocks traded primarily on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are roughly $34 Trillion (https://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-stock-market-is-biggest-most-expensive-in-world-but-us-economy-is-not-the-most-productive-cm942558).  Of that mind boggling figure, the “Four Horseman of the Nasdaq Collapse” alone account for nearly $4 […]

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