Important Market TOP Forming? The charts have turned VERY ugly even as the news remains relatively benign. It’s tempting to blame the recent market volatility on the ups and downs of the prospects for a US/China trade deal. The timing of the sudden market plunge points the finger squarely at Trade Tensions. “Trade Tensions […]
The Incredible NON-Credible Fed Three months ago, the Federal Reserve expected to raise interest 3 times in 2019. At the conclusion of the Fed Meeting on March 20th, the Fed announced that it expects NO rate increases as far as the eye can see. Chairman Jerome Powell also announced a MUCH earlier termination of […]
Stocks And Bonds Diverge It wasn’t that long ago the markets anticipated a substantial economic slowdown. The 20% or so plunge in equities was coupled with a sizable drop in Treasury Bond Yields. Something odd is going on. Most key equity indexes are approaching all-time highs. Bonds yields, on the other hand, are breaking […]
Post-Christmas Rally Stalling The stock market has been on a tear since Christmas. In the last 19 trading days, the Dow Jones Industrials (Dow) have gained 2800 points or nearly 13%. Other key indexes have generated equally impressive gains: Nasdaq 100 (+13.5%), Russell 2000 (+15%) and S & P 500 (+12.5%). The belief that a […]
Long Term Interest Rates Plunge to 2.9% Despite the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) policy of slowly raising rates to “Neutral”, the Bond Market won’t cooperate. On Thursday, yields fell to a level that, not long ago, seemed UNTHINKABLE. The Mini-Slideshow below illustrates the dramatic downward moves in 5 year, 10 year and 30 year maturities. […]
The 3 Minute Ramp In the final 3 minutes of trading for 2018, the Dow Jones Industrials (Dow) gained an amazing 177 points (0.76%). The chart of the Dow on the left is for the period between 11:45 am EST and 4:00 pm EST on Monday. Each bar represents ONE minute. The stock market’s fireworks […]
Has The Fed Miscalculated, AGAIN?? The recent about-face in US Treasury rates is nothing short of stunning. Or is it? At the end of 2015, Janet Yellen’s Federal Reserve first began the process of unwinding the prior years of stimulus. The key “Federal Funds” rate target was hiked a full five times. Even so, […]
Federal Reserve Chairman Signals Change in Policy Jerome Powell has only been on the job as the new Federal Reserve Chairman since February, but has already created substantial controversy. Powell’s Fed has raised the “Federal Funds” rate 3 times in 6 months. Until recently, the Fed was signalling another rate hike in December and up […]
Bull Vs. Bear Debate Continues. As the major stock market indexes plunged during most of October, fear began to grip Wall Street. On October 29th, the intraday trading range for the stodgy Dow Jones Industrial Average was nearly 1000 points. The lows lasted a fraction of a second, however. Within the next 24 hours, the […]
Signs of Inflation Rapidly Vanish. For the 12 months ended September, 2018, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported to be increasing at an annual rate of 2.3% (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/). The CPI is the “official” measure of how much more it costs an individual each year to maintain a consistent standard of living. Unfortunately, the CPI […]
